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Speaker 1
Hey, Jack, can you hear me? Okay.
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Speaker 2
Hey, Brunson. I can hear you. How's it going?
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Speaker 1
It's going well. Do you mind if I record this for a podcast?
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Speaker 2
Sure. I don't. No problem. What's on your mind?
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Speaker 1
I want to talk today about the lump of labor fallacy two.
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Speaker 2
Or the lump of labor fallacy is the belief that there's a fixed amount of work available. So if one group takes more work, others will have less. It's often discussed in the context of automation or immigration. What specifically would you like to know or discuss about it?
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Speaker 1
I'd really like to just dig into all the different aspects of it. I think the.
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Speaker 2
Number of jobs pick a new technology.
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Speaker 1
Pick somewhere to start, and let's go from there.
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Speaker 2
Got it. The lumber labor fallacy often overlooks how innovation and productivity can lead to job growth. For example, automation might displace some jobs, but also creates new ones in tech and maintenance. Would you like to dive deeper into examples or the implications of this fallacy?
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Speaker 1
Let's start way more basic and work up to that.
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Speaker 2
Sure thing. The lump of labor fallacy is the idea that there's a fixed amount of work or jobs in the economy, but in reality, economies grow and new jobs are created. So if automation or immigration happens, it doesn't necessarily reduce the total number of jobs available. Does that help as a starting point?
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Speaker 1
I think what would really help us put this in perspective and kind of imagine what you're talking about, is to give us a historical example of what it means.
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Speaker 2
Sure. A classic example is the Industrial Revolution, when machinery was introduced in factories. People feared that machines would replace all human workers. But instead, while some jobs were lost, many new ones were created, like machine operators and maintenance technicians. The overall effect was economic growth and more diverse job opportunities. Does that help illustrate the point?
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Speaker 1
What time period was this?
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Speaker 2
The Industrial Revolution began in the late 18th century, around the 1760s, and continued into the 19th century. It started in Britain and then spread to other parts of the world. It's a great historical example of how technological advancements changed the job landscape.
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Speaker 1
What is the biggest segment of the economy? The Industrial Revolution or maybe a tool that was new that, really, you can show. Good example of this labor of love. Lump of labor fallacy is an example.
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Speaker 2
Sure. A notable example is the fear that the rise of computers and automation would lead to massive unemployment. People worry that as machines took over tasks, there would be no job left for humans. However, while automation did change the job market, it also created new industries and opportunities. Much like during the Industrial Revolution. Does that clarify it a bit?
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Speaker 1
I actually want you to give me a specific example from the Industrial Revolution. If you don't mind.
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Speaker 2
Got it. A classic example from the Industrial Revolution is the textile industry. When power looms were introduced, many hand weavers feared losing their jobs. Initially some did, but over time the industry expanded, creating new roles in machine operation, maintenance and management. This shift also lowered production costs, making textiles more affordable and boosting demand, which in turn created even more jobs.
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Speaker 2
Does that example help?
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Speaker 1
Yes, but I want to go into more detail to kind of really paint the picture. So you said that it was the power loom that was invented that caused this.
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Speaker 2
Yes. The power loom invented by Edmund Cartwright in the late 18th century, mechanized the process of weaving cloth. This dramatically increased productivity, but initially threatened traditional hand weavers jobs. Over time, though, the increased efficiency lowered the cost of textiles, leading to a boom in the textile industry. This created new jobs in factories from machine operators to supervisors and even in other sectors supporting the industry, so it transformed the labor landscape and contributed to economic growth.
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Speaker 2
Does that give you a clearer picture?
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Speaker 1
Give me the life of what you expect. The hand weaver in this era pre power loom would have looked like.
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Speaker 2
Certainly a hand weavers life before the power loom was quite different. They typically worked from home or in small workshops using hand looms to weave cloth. This was a labor intensive process that required significant skill and time. They often worked long hours to produce limited quantities of fabric. Their income depended on the demand for their work, which could be unpredictable.
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Speaker 2
Socially, they were part of a close knit community of artisans. The arrival of power looms drastically changed this way of life by shifting production to factories. Does that help paint the picture?
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Speaker 1
So go into more detail about how this shift between hand weaving, into the power loom era, what kind of opportunities and wealth or whatever? Mostly jobs that it created.
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Speaker 2
Sure. With the introduction of the power loom. Production moved from homes to factories, creating many new job opportunities. People were needed to operate and maintain the machinery, manage factory operations, and handle logistics. This shift also spurred urbanization as workers moved closer to factories, fueling the growth of cities. Additionally, it led to the rise of a new middle class involved in business, trade and factory management.
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Speaker 2
So while traditional weaving jobs declined, a broader range of employment opportunities emerged in the industrial sector. Does that make sense?
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Speaker 2
It's definitely a complex transition. If you have any specific questions or want to explore any aspect further, just let me know.
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Speaker 1
So you talked about the industry going through a boom. Can you kind of expand on that?
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Speaker 2
Sure. The shift to factory based production meant more consistent employment, standardized wages and the potential for career growth within the factory system. It also led to the growth of new professions like factory supervisors, engineers, and administrative roles beyond the factory. There were also increased opportunities in related sectors like transportation, trade and machinery maintenance. So while the traditional artisan roles diminished, there was a broader range of job opportunities that came with industrialization.
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Speaker 2
Does that help?
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Speaker 1
Yeah. Do you have any statistics with respect to maybe production numbers or like sales or something like that that came from before and after the power loom?
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Speaker 2
Certainly before the power loom weaving was largely manual. In 1803, Britain had about 2400 power looms by 1833. This number surged to 100,000. This dramatic increase shows how the power loom revolutionized textile production, vastly increasing output and efficiency.
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Speaker 1
I was thinking about more along the lines of like macroeconomic, numbers.
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Speaker 2
The introduction of power looms had significant macroeconomic impacts. They greatly increased textile production efficiency, which led to lower fabric prices and increased demand. This growth spurred industrial employment and urbanization. However, it also displaced many handloom weavers, causing unemployment and social unrest. Like the 1826 power loom riots in Lancashire.
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Speaker 1
Can you go into that specific example?
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Speaker 2
Certainly. The 1826 power loom riots in Lancashire were sparked by widespread unemployment among handloom weavers. As power looms became more prevalent. They replaced manual weaving, leading to job losses. Frustration and economic hardship drove weavers to riot, attacking factories and destroying machinery. This unrest highlighted the social challenges of industrialization as technological progress often came with significant social costs. Does that give you a clearer picture?
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Speaker 1
Yeah, I think so.
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Speaker 2
You're welcome. If you have any more questions or want to explore anything else, just let me know.
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Speaker 1
Can you give me another historical example? Besides, the power looms?
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Speaker 2
Sure. Another example is the introduction of the steam engine in mining and transportation. Before steam power mining was labor intensive and relied on horse drawn or manual methods, the steam engine revolutionized these processes, enabling deeper mining and more efficient transportation of goods. This increased productivity and expanded industries, but also displaced many traditional jobs. Similar to the power loom.
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Speaker 2
Would you like more details on that?
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Speaker 1
See, I think the steam engine, I'm kind of in, I'm kind of thinking about historical examples of like, industry chain or like exactly.
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Speaker 2
The steam engine had a huge impact on industries like textile manufacturing, railroads and shipping and textiles. Steam powered machines, increased production and transport. Steam locomotives and ships revolutionized travel and trade, enabling faster movement of goods and people. This spurred economic growth and urbanization. I want to delve into a specific industry.
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Speaker 1
Can you give me a broad but detailed picture of how the steam engine affected the world?
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Speaker 2
Certainly, the steam engines impact was profound in textiles. Steam powered mills replaced watermills, allowing factories to operate in various locations in mining. Steam engines enabled deeper shafts and more efficient extraction. Railroads powered by steam revolutionized transport, connecting cities and boosting trade. Steamships reduced travel time across oceans. This technological advancement fueled economic growth, urbanization, and new industries while also displacing traditional jobs.
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Speaker 2
It's a key driver of the Industrial revolution.
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Speaker 1
Can you give me a few other examples of things that are, in your opinion, as important or more than the steam engine?
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Speaker 2
Certainly, the internal combustion engine is another transformative invention, crucial for automobiles and airplanes, reshaping transportation and global trade. The printing press, by revolutionizing information dissemination, was pivotal for education and communication, electricity powering modern infrastructure and technology is fundamental. Each of these innovations significantly shaped industries and society. Does that help?
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Speaker 1
And do you see any common themes across macroeconomic trends? When, with respect to these new inventions hitting the market that you would want to kind of share?
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Speaker 2
Absolutely. Common macroeconomic trends include increased productivity, displacement of traditional jobs, urbanization, and the rise of new industries. Innovations often lead to economic growth, but can also create social challenges such as income inequality and labor shifts. These patterns are seen across various technological advancements, from the steam engine to the internet.
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Speaker 1
Keep going.
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Speaker 2
Additionally, technological innovations often result in shifts in labor markets requiring new skills and education, and can drive globalization by connecting markets and reducing costs. They can also lead to regulatory changes as governments adapt to new economic realities. This pattern is consistent whether we're talking about the industrial revolution, the digital revolution, or future technologies like AI and automation.
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Speaker 1
What is your opinion on these major technical shifts and how they affect humankind and the earth? And I.
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Speaker 2
I think these technological shifts are transformative, bringing both opportunities and challenges. They can enhance productivity, create new art forms, and drive innovation. However, they also necessitate adapting to new ways of working and can disrupt existing structures. Balancing technological progress with social considerations is key to maximizing benefits while mitigating downsides.
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Speaker 1
What do you think the best way as an individual is to go about, going through these challenges? Depending on what side you're on of it.
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Speaker 2
Staying adaptable and continuously learning new skills is crucial. Embracing change. Staying informed and being open to innovation can help. Building a diverse skill set and staying connected with evolving trends can make transitions smoother. Regardless of where you are, how does that sound?
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Speaker 1
What would you say to people adversely affected by changes like these?
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Speaker 2
I'd emphasize resilience seeking, support networks and exploring retraining or upskilling opportunities. It's important to advocate for policies that support transitions and to stay proactive in finding new opportunities. Change can be tough, but with the right resources and mindset, it's possible to navigate and thrive.
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Speaker 1
How do you think the a. I will kind of have this effect on the world?
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Speaker 2
AI is likely to bring significant changes, boosting productivity and creating new opportunities. However, it could also displace certain jobs, necessitating reskilling and adaptation. The key will be in balancing the benefits while addressing the social impacts, ensuring that people are prepared for the evolving job market.
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Speaker 1
Is there anything else you'd like to add?
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Speaker 2
Just as staying adaptable and continuously learning will be crucial. Embracing change and being proactive can help navigate the future successfully. If you ever need support or guidance, I'm here to help.
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Speaker 1
Do you think that humanity will have any kind of Achilles heel when it comes to AI, or do you have any recommendations for how to tread there?
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Speaker 2
Humanity has a great capacity to adapt to new technologies with AI. It's important to focus on ethical development, inclusive policies and education. Being mindful of AI's potential impacts and working collectively can help ensure a positive future.
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Speaker 1
What are your thoughts on open source AI?
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Speaker 2
Open source AI is great for fostering collaboration, innovation and transparency. It allows more people to contribute, learn and benefit from advancements. It can also help address biases and improve accountability. Overall, it's a positive direction for the field.
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Speaker 1
So we talked about things like the steam engine and the power loom. And there's other things like the printing press and and all that. Right.
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Speaker 2
Exactly. Each of these innovations had profound impact on society and the economy. Similar to how AI is transforming our world today.
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Speaker 1
Would you agree that with all these things that can't.
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Speaker 2
Yes. Each major technological advancement brought significant changes. Much like AI today, they often required society to adapt, learn new skills, and rethink existing structures. It's a continuous cycle of innovation and adaptation.
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Speaker 1
So anything else you'd like to add about the lump of labor fallacy and, kind of tying it in with the development of AI and people that may be concerned that AI is taking their job, like writers and, and and stuff like that. And what would you say? What would you say to a writer? I'd say like that, that was worried about that.
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Speaker 2
While I might change certain roles, it also opens up new possibilities. Adaptation and exploring complementary skills can help writers and others remain relevant. It's about evolving with the technology.
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Speaker 1
And using it as a tool.
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Speaker 2
You're welcome.
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Speaker 1
I said, and using it as a tool.
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Speaker 2
Absolutely. I can be a tool to enhance creativity and productivity. It's all about how we use it to our advantage.
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Speaker 1
All right, that sounds good. Peace.
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Speaker 2
Glad to hear it. If you have any more questions, feel free to ask.